Does the economy feel like it’s improving to you? Have you found a job? Is your company hiring? Are you a recruiter with an increasingly high load of requisitions?
My friends at LinkUp send a monthly jobs report and it always saps the wind out of my sails. Here’s the good news.
The Conference Board has reported an increase of 222,000 in online job demand, while ADP reported an increase of 32,000 private sector jobs in April. Intuit reported that small businesses added 66,000 jobs last month, while Wanted Technologies is predicting an increasing of 220,000 jobs in Friday’s jobs report.
That sounds okay, but they also have some bad news.
Data from LinkUp paint a very different picture of the job market. LinkUp, a job search engine that indexes only jobs found on over 22,000 company websites around the country, reports that new job listings on company websites dropped by 27,474 (-6%), while total job openings published on company websites fell by 60,567 (-7%). Equally as alarming, 32 states (and Puerto Rico) showed declines in new job listings, while 33 (as well as both Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico) showed a drop in total job listings.
Shoot. That’s depressing. You can see the report here if you want to dig deeper — but I want to know how you feel. Do you feel secure? Is the economy is improving? Are you a Debbie Downer like me?
You are the experts on work. You tell me what’s going on out there.
{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }
We need to stop listening to the government telling us that things are improving. For the average person they are not, plain and simple. There is plenty of blame to pass around if we feel that need but what we really need is more real action out of Washington and less rhetoric. Words mean nothing. Only action can help people get back to work. Our government has the words thing down pat. The action thing? Not so much.
I am seeing some signs that things are recovering, albeit very slow. I am planning for staffing versus prepping for a layoff so that is good; for me and for the people that may be on the latter list. We are approaching additional staff with caution as we believe the economy is going to go through another minor dip before we begin to see a full recovery. (We may be seeing that beginning now) Revenue generating jobs (Sales and Marketing, Product Development, etc.) seem to be rebounding as business tries to start driving the top line again, however, support roles (HR, Finance, IT, etc.) still don’t seem to have much steam.
As for the general economy, I am sure millions of gallons of oil spilling into the Gulf and our government only being worried about who is going to pay for the cleanup won’t help matters any. I want to hear our President say that he has deployed every resource available to stop this horrible disaster as I am pretty sure that is what a true leader would do. (And I don’t mean that he should deploy another cabinet member to fly over the disaster) I believe going into the latter part of this year we will begin to see some inflation which will further stifle job growth as business tries to deal with generally increased prices. I hear a fair amount of concern over healthcare reform and see insurance companies raising rates considerably to offset this first round of changes. I believe this is overstated but in our rural locations there is sometimes only one choice. (Do not pass go and pay them another $200.) My biggest concern is that our national debt is approaching GDP and when that happens we are all in trouble. Check out what happened to Italy, Argentina, and Great Britain (post WWII) when this happened to them and it will scare the bejesus out of you. The Argentina story can be found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002) (I know it is a wiki but it seems fairly accurate)
So…..yes….I see some recovery but I think we all have to be cautiously optomistic about it. I think this summer will be a mini recession and growth won’t really take off until 2011. I guess I am a Debbie Downer as I worry about a government that seems hell bent on creating an environment where doing business in the US is a difficult proposition.
Great post, not great news. Being realistic about whats available is important for the job seeker to know as the search continues. The beat goes on…
I’ve always noticed that hiring activity lags the recovery. Businesses that shed a large number of workers are loathe be in the position to have to do it again and the memory of emotional financial stress of severance and all of the subsequent reorganization is just too fresh. I went to a SHRM meeting Tuesday for the first time in probably two years and I got the sense from several of the people with whom I spoke that they are waiting until they can fully understand the implications of the health care legislation and its impact on plan design and cost before adding significant headcount.
I’d be interested to see quarterly earnings near term forecasts of the Manpowers, Adeccos and Spherions of the world. I do think things are improving, but the opportunities for contract, temp, part-time and consulting gigs are going to outpace the direct, full-time hires for the next 3-6 months.
Just my .02.
Personally, I am feeling slightly more optimistic about my prospects, having been hired in January after 10 months of unemployment. However, hubby just got certified to teach and we’re not so optimistic about him getting a “real” teaching job (he’s currently subbing) any time soon. (We’re in NJ where the governor is cutting the hell out of public education.) So I have mixed feelings about the recovery from a personal standpoint. I won’t feel secure until we’re both working and he gets tenure somewhere.
After 24 months of downsizing and resizing (nice way of saying laying off people) we are finally hiring in many of our businesses across the US…sort of like pent up demand…my generalists are all back to recruiting (of course only very select positions)…but its positive!!!!
The numbers seem acurate…the problem for job seekers is increased competion for each job, and a lazer like requirement of line mgmt to have specific skills. No more 8 out of 10, you need 10 out of 10 and then you first get an interview. So the competition is fierce…Every little thing you can do to get an edge is important…Great attitude a must (even if you have been out for a long time and want to cry)…If your an applicant do your homework on the prospective company…google your boss too…know who your talking to…like I said get an edge on the competition…
M
I’m feeling more optimistic than I have in the past year. I’ve been lucky to keep my job and it seems most of the lay-offs are over with the exception of education/teaching cuts.
Does this mean everyone is hiring? No. As others have said, that takes time. Recovery is slow but it is happening. Companies are going to be conservative in increasing headcount after cutting jobs. We will continue to see a focus on being financially disciplined in corporate america. That means maintaining and only hiring for revenue generating positions.
So, yes I am optimistic but it will be a while until we have a full recovery where employees are in high demand again.
I think there is a tremendous amount of variance across the USA, from state to state and even city to city.
Here in Denver, things are most certainly looking up. I’ve been working for a company as a contractor since last fall, and just this week, my position as well as 3 others were made permanent. Additionally, we hired 3 new permanent full-timers (this is a very small business – only about 25 employees total).
I’ve also noticed a pretty significant increase in not only the NUMBER of jobs being advertised, but also the KIND of jobs being advertised.
However, I think relying on the number of job-listings that are published on websites as an indicator of the overall jobs picture is risky – PARTICULARLY in this recovery, because I think now more than ever, a lot of employers are relying on recommendations and personal connections in the hiring process. That’s how I got my job, along with the 3 other contractors who were recently made permanent. We all KNEW someone and ended up in jobs that were never advertised.
This is good news for people who are well connected, and bad news for those who aren’t.
The BLS is releasing their monthly jobs report tomorrow. So while I’d like to see an increase in the number of jobs being advertised, I’m far more interested in seeing an increase in the number of jobs that are actually being filled.
Alot of why we can’t get the workers that we need is because our government has an employment program that promotes dependency on the state and requires you to do very little for a decent amount of pay. So even when we do hire factory workers- they work for one day- think it’s too difficult/manual and then never come back. It’s not only us- every where you go you see ‘help wanted’ signs posted.
Another issue we have specific our industry is there is no formal/academic training available for the field and hence we have to hope we get persons with experience from other businesses in the field. Right now that’s rare so we have resorted to hiring skilled foreigners which takes time and too much paperwork.
The BIGGEST issue right now that could affect how our economy is going is it’s currently national election season and things are tense and pretty much in limbo. After May 24th we might get a clearer picture of the direction we’re headed in.
I’ve seen more requisitions, thus more hiring— but our clients, across the board, are milking the bad economy as an excuse to pay less than before the meltdown. Try talking a Senior level Systems Architect into getting paid what they made 2 years out of ITT Tech.
We have been hiring, however many of our new employee positions are filled by contractors (similar to Michele’s comment) so the permanent job req. never goes public.
Personally in the last months, I have received more headhunter contacts than I had in the preceeding 12 to 15 months.
Well, this news makes me want to say a prayer of thanks to the baby Jeebus (as well as my networking contacts) for the fact that I landed a job. It doesn’t make me feel mega-secure about where the economy will take us though (and that 900 point Dow drop today isn’t helping).
This news meshes a whole lot more closely with what I’m hearing from other jobseekers. I’m astounded at many talented people I know are going on two years of searching.
I haven’t found anything yet, but I did have an interview last month, so that was pretty cool!
As a job seeker (and I know nobody including hiring managers can’t do anything about this–I’m just venting) it’s frustrating to see that employers are not hiring because they suspect another dip in the economy. At the same time, if employers do not hire, there will almost certainly be another dip in the economy, right? Which will get even worse if employers continue to not hire and not hire? And everyone is so grateful to have a job right now, honestly I don’t see why an employer would even go to the expense of hiring. You can probably stretch current employees some more before you absolutely *have* to hire, and get away with it.
All of this stuff seems so self-fulfilling.
sorry, that should be nobody can do anything…
Here’s a rant:
I’m currently on contract with an organization which is sadly, coming to an end. Sigh. I’ve been a finalist three times; the third time is the present. The hiring organization is on hold – due to internal hullabaloo. So I’ve been informed I’m still a good candidate but they can’t move forward with an offer at present…give it about a month they say. Not like I have a choice – and worse, not like I’m confident I’m going to get the offer. The real rub? They brought in a consultant (buddy ole pal of the SVP from a former life) mid-hiring process who is now filling in the gap (and her coffers from the contract dollars) on the job I’m interviewing for until the “key” project she was brought in for actually takes off. Not only that, I had to interview with the consultant who made it clear she only had to do “courtesy interviews” where I met with 10 people that expoused the criticality for “fit.” She made it clear she didn’t want the job, but she was very happy as a consultant. Conflict of interest, anyone? The worst part is that I actually like the company and am amped about the job. And – not like I can call them on these shenanigans.
Back to you post Laurie – yes, there is definitely more movement in HR hiring in my neck of the woods; but there are still huge groups of amazing professionals still looking for a job. The end result = we still have a lot of unemployed (or underemployed). Besides, leading economists say that from historical studies of recessions in the US, unemployment will continue to climb on average, seven (7) QUARTERS before leveling off. Gonna be a while? Better go grab your Snickers…
This is what I think:
http://www.bls.gov/
In my neck of the woods, things are looking good. My brother got a job he’s psyched about here, an old classmate is moving back home, and another brother of mine interviewed for a good job and may move back to the area. I also got a job here back in January. While things aren’t easy, they’re looking up.
@Frank Those numbers are private sector #s. The jobs report, tomorrow, will be a gov’t report. Stay tuned!
@akadwood I know about Argentina and it’s very scary. I like Brazil as a model. They’re doing the right things and moving in the right direction. Dare we dream?
@scott I think you’re right about the temp/contract hiring as the way of the (immediate) future. It’s good for Kelly Services — but is it good for America when benefits are tied to employment? I dunno, dude.
@Socialsea the beat does go on…!
@Amy I’ll keep my fingers crossed fo’ yo’ husband. Is this the new governor who just beat the old governor? And he’s cutting education? Classy.
@markF All good advice. It’s almost like you used to be a blogger!
@Michelle Optimism is contagious. I hope more people are thoughtful like you, too.
@Michele “Good news for people who are connected…” such a true statement. Also, I’m with you on the BLS #. That’s gonna be insightful.
@Karen Wow, good luck. Island life is so political!
@MattyMat Good insight on the comp levels. I’ve seen that, too.
@Salescomp That’s the sad thing about temp-to-perm. You have to have a foothold inside the company to even get a chance at a requisition.
@Patrick I can’t believe how many awesome people are looking, too. Something is really messed up out there. STILL. After all these years. #sigh
@SCG All of this stuff seems so self-fulfilling. I think that’s true. We have a national debbie downer syndrome when it comes to the economy, right now. What we think, we become.
@anonymous Oh schwoo. I’m sorry for your troubles. Thanks for the comment & hang in there.
@econopete YEAH!
Unfortunately this depressed economy has many factors that are self fulfilling, and therefore it continues to feed on itself and make more people miserable. At the same time I would agree with others that the rhetoric is there, but as I once saw the the CEO of GE say, ” in order to do something, you actually have to do something”. In this case, I would have to say the government did not do enough, and probably should have listened to the likes of Roubini and Krugman who both said the govt. needs to do more. Personally, I dont see Obama getting re-elected with 8+ unemployment. I dont care what he does in the meantime. Healthcare, Financial reforms (a day late and a dollar short), whatever, I just dont see it happening. Hopefully I’m wrong and the economy does not lag until 2012 and beyond.